VietNamNet Bridge – Gold has lost VND440,000/tael just in the last few days compared to early May. Meanwhile, the greenback, which keeps revaluating since the beginning of the year, saw sharp price increases in the last few days.
Price drops, time to buy gold
The gold price plunged to the deepest low in the last three months last week in the world’s market. On the morning of June 11, gold was traded at $650/oz in Asia, down by $15/oz from the previous week’s level.
In Vietnam, SIC gold was traded at VND12,800,000/tael on June 11, down by nearly VND200,000/tael over the previous price level.
The price decreases have prompted businessmen and speculators to push up trade. The trading volume at the Saigon gold trading floor made a record on June 11, reaching 9,100 taels, worth VND116bil. Gold traders in HCM City also rushed to place orders to import gold.
A source said that within one week, nearly 10 tonnes of gold have been imported. Some traders ordered a large volume, 500-600kg of gold. The Saigon Jewellery Company (SJC) reported that it now could sell 5,000 taels of bar gold a day, an increase of 50% over the previous days.
As the gold price fluctuates heavily, gold traders can make the fat profit of VND150,000/tael, an analyst guessed.
The gold price began slipping on May 11, when the price slightly decreased to VND12,930,000/tael. After that day, the price keeps decreasing every day. By the end of the last week, the gold price had dropped by VND440,000/tael compared to the highest price level seen in May.
Dollar escalating
The dollar price has reached the VND16,120/US$1 level, the highest peak so far this year. On June 18, Vietcombank announced the purchasing and selling prices at VND16,095 and 16,130/US$1 respectively, increasing by VND55-68/US$1 compared to one month ago.
In the last few days, commercial banks have been raising the gold purchasing prices in order to buy more dollars to provide to import companies.
In the black market, the dollar price has also been increasing, approximate to the banks’ prices. Though the dollar price increases, the purchasing power from individuals remains unchanged.
Several commercial banks, anticipating the dollar price increases, have decided the US$ deposit interest rates. The Military Bank has raised the interest rate by 0.6%, while Habubank by 0.05-0.5%.
Bankers said that they offer higher interest rates in order to attract more capital in the context of the stronger dollar. The demand for borrowing dollars is increasing from import – export companies.
Analysts said that the higher US$ deposit interest rates would lead to the higher VND deposit interest rates in the coming time, especially when the State Bank of Vietnam has required the higher compulsory reserve ratio, which would make the usable capital lower.
How high can the prices jump?
The gold and the dollar prices always go in the opposite ways. According to Huynh Trung Khanh, an expert, the gold price would see another increase wave at the end of this year.
“The VND13,338,000/tael level in April would not be the highest peak of the year,” Mr Khanh said. He added that in the fourth quarter of the year, the greenback may decline in value against other foreign currencies, while the gold price would hit the $700/oz level.
In the world’s market, the gold price has slightly increased on the devaluation of the greenback after the news about the unsatisfactory CPI of the US. However, Eximbank’s experts still forecast that the gold price would see further decreases.
Meanwhile, a banker said that the dollar may decrease in the time to come for two reasons. He said that the dollar price increased because of the higher demand for dollars to make payment for export – import deals.
The VND/US$ exchange rate may see further increase in some days, but it is hardly to exceed the VND17,000/US$1 level as seen in mid 2006.
“The foreign currency reserve at the central bank proves to be profuse, while the overseas remittance is big. The imbalance between supply and demand does not exist, therefore, there would not be sharp price increases,” he said.
(Source: SGTT) |
No comments:
Post a Comment