Morning Star crowns three winners

12:27' 16/07/2007 (GMT+7)

From left: Le Anh Dung, Dinh Thi Thanh Le and Pham Ha Linh VietNamNet Bridge – The popular singing contest Morning Star ended yesterday with Le Anh Dung, Dinh Thi Thanh Le and Pham Ha Linh winning first prizes in the chamber, folk and light music categories, respectively. These results weren’t surprising since all of these 3 final winners had recorded the highest scores on earlier selection rounds. Le Anh Dung from Thanh Hoa province won over the 9-member jury with a new work by veteran musician An Thuyen titled Do You Want to Hold Autumn. Le Anh Dung also won VietNamNet’s audiences’ prize. In the folk music category, Dinh Thi Thanh Le from Ha Tinh province chose a song about her own hometown called I love Ha Tinh for her performance. And Pham Ha Linh from Hanoi sang a particularly difficult and unfamiliar song, Thousand-eye Thousand-arm Bodhisattva,in the light music category. The interesting surprise of the final night was that all of these 3 winning songs were written by musician An Thuyen, who has decided to accept 5 potential Morning Star contestants to the Military University of Culture and Arts of which he is the president. The other 6 final contestants were all awarded second prizes. Of the 9 finalists, 7 are currently studying at the Hanoi Conservatory. This suggests that Morning Star requires a great deal of its contestants, many of whom are not only natural talents but have also gone through one type of training or another. However, this year’s Morning Star has been relatively “quiet” for several reasons, one of which is that it was held in Nha Trang City, which is quite faraway from Hanoi and Saigon, where the media concentrates. (Source: VNN, TT,Viet Nam Net)

Advertising campaign for Ha Long Bay needed

16:19' 16/07/2007 (GMT+7)

Ha Long Bay VietNamNet Bridge – Vietnam’s Ha Long Bay is one of the candidates for the selection of world natural wonders. How can the bay become one of the top seven world wonders? Here are the opinions of two foreigners working in the tourism sector. Let’s make many people know about Ha Long To make people pay attention to and vote for Ha Long Bay, you need to conduct a separate and effective advertising campaign to promote the characteristics and the unique landscapes that only the bay has. You need to make viewers like and want to visit Ha Long Bay and to vote for this beautiful site. Perhaps many Vietnamese people know about Ha Long Bay already but not many foreign tourists know about it so let’s make many people in the world know about Vietnam. On this occasion, the Vietnam National Administration of Tourism should immediately hire a professional marketing firm to advertise images of Vietnam. Another job that must to be done now is upgrading the quality of the environment and services in the area of Ha Long Bay. (Paul Stoll, General Director of the Celadon International Tourism Consulting Company) Vietnam should learn a lesson from Angkor Wat This is good news for Vietnam in general and Vietnam in particular. I will vote for Ha Long Bay as one of the world natural wonders. But I worry that many people will not have opportunities to vote for the bay because not all have access to this English website. The lesson of Angkor Wat (Cambodia), which was not chosen as one of new wonders of the world recently, is an example. Anybody who has visited this site confirms that this is wonderful architecture. Cambodia surely wants to vote for Angkor Wat but not all Cambodian people have access to this information. The Cambodian population is not large; the government also didn’t implement timely measures so the number of people voting for Angkor Wat was not high. Based on the lesson of Angkor Wat, Vietnamese agencies must inform Vietnamese people and the world community about the advantages of Ha Long Bay. Vietnam Airlines should take part in this programme by conveying images and information about Ha Long Bay in its Heritage Magazine. I ask myself whether the Vietnam National Administration of Tourism plans to hire a professional company to perform a special advertising programme for Ha Long Bay and Vietnam tourism or not. Such a programme will be very effective. The Vietnam National Administration of Tourism should also participate more often in professional tourism fairs to introduce the potentials of Ha Long Bay and call for people to vote for this site. (Paul Levrier, General Director of Destination Asia Travel Company, in charge of the Vietnamese and Cambodian markets) (Source: Viet Nam Net)

Merrill Lynch misunderstands Vietnam: experts

17:57' 16/07/2007 (GMT+7)

VietNamNet Bridge – Merrill Lynch’s report on the gloomy prospects for Vietnam’s stock market has immediately caused a dramatic fall in the market. However, local securities experts say that it is just a unilateral report and does not reflect the real situation in Vietnam. Not reliable… According to Dominic Scriven, Director of Dragon Capital, an investment fund management company, the report shows that Merrill Lynch does not have good understanding about Vietnam’s market. The information that Merrill Lynch used to make its report was provided by only several securities companies in Vietnam. He said that the suggestions Merrill Lynch made would just conform to its clients who have short-term vision. “Strategic investors have another way of thinking,” he said. Huy Nam, a securities expert, also said that the recommendations suggested by Merrill Lynch would be used internally only: i.e. for Merrill Lynch’s clients; and the conclusions by Merrill Lynch reflected the institution’s subjective way of thinking. In the report released on July 5, Merryll Lynch expressed a very pessimistic view of Vietnam’s stock market and mentioned the possibility of the group withdrawing its capital from Vietnam. Mr Nam said that it was not the right method to assess the market based on the P/E index only. He said that it was quite a normal thing if the market stopped for some time after a long period of developing. He stressed that the P/E of more than 30 as the report said just occurred with several share items, while the real P/E was just 20 or a little higher for the majority of share items, meaning that the market was remaining attractive enough to investors. Dragon Capital has calculated that the P/E will be 26 in 2007and 22 in 2008, which shows that it is worth investing in Vietnam’s stocks. Merrill Lynch has suggested withdrawing capital from Vietnam to inject in China, a market with big potential with a P/E at below 19, and EPS at more than 20%. Director General of the Saigon Securities Incorporated (SSI) Nguyen Duy Hung said that he personally found Vietnam more attractive than China as a destination for investment. Mr Hung said that the P/E was not the most important factor investors should consider. Vietnam’s stock market is still in its first period of development, while the Chinese market has experienced a long development period. As China’s stock market has been well developed, there are not many opportunities to own blue chips at reasonable prices as available in Vietnam. “Investors should keep calm when they get information. They should know their purposes for investment and their capability before making decisions,” Mr Hung said. … but worth thinking over Though saying that Merrill Lynch’s report was not reliable, experts said that Merrill Lynch’s comments on the massive additional share issuance were worth considering. The report said that the habit of issuing additional shares by Vietnamese companies has resulted in the low EPS, at 10% (the higher the EPS, the more profit shareholders can get). Mr Scriven from Dragon Capital said that Vietnamese companies did not always weigh pros and corns well when deciding to issue additional shares, especially bonus shares. Mr Hung from SSI shared the same view, saying that enterprises should only issue more shares if they had better business performance. In fact, companies often rush to issue more shares when business is not as good as expected. An investor on An Binh Securities Company’s trading floor said that the pessimism of Merrill Lynch was worth thinking about. The report may be the group’s reaction to the unstable policies on market management: for example, the central bank suddenly tightening the loaning for securities investments. The director of a securities company has said that the report, which has been published on mass media, will make the market waver. The VN Index lost 19.9 points this morning, closing at 995.83 points. (Source: Viet Nam Net)

Merrill Lynch pessimistic about Vietnam’s stocks

15:06' 16/07/2007 (GMT+7)

VietNamNet Bridge – The world’s leading financial group, Merrill Lynch, which once highly praised Vietnam as a pioneer market and advised investors to inject money in Vietnam’s stocks, now says that Vietnam’s market is not attractive. It was a big surprise to everyone when Merrill Lynch on July 5 released a report saying that Vietnam’s stock market was eroding and suggested reducing the level of securities investment in Vietnam to zero. The report on investment strategy in Asia-Pacific in 2007 was conducted by a group of researchers belonging to Merrill Lynch. Merrill Lynch’s recommendation to withdraw capital from Vietnam was made based on four factors: 1. transaction value on the official bourse, 2. VN Index fluctuation, 3. EPS (earning per share) index and 4. P/E (price/earning). Merrill Lynch’s recommendations for investment allocation in Asia-Pacific (excluding Japan) Country/territory Investment allocation (%) EPS growth rate (%) PE 2007 (*) 2008 (*) 2007 (*) 2008 (*) Vietnam 0.0 10.0 8.0 39.5 36.2 Indonesia 0.5 41.5 19.7 16.7 13.9 Thailand 1.0 (0.1) 16.0 10.8 9.1 Philippines 2.0 9.5 9.7 16.0 14.6 Pakistan 2.5 12.4 12.5 11.2 9.9 India 2.5 17.9 12.7 17.4 15.4 Malaysia 5.0 13.3 7.2 18.0 16.8 Singapore 7.2 12.2 12.2 18.3 16.3 Hong Kong 9.0 17.0 6.3 15.6 14.5 Taiwan 10.5 22.0 22.5 15.9 13.0 China 14.0 22.8 20.7 18.9 15.6 ROK 17.8 7.0 23.0 15.3 12.4 Australia 28.0 9.2 6.2 16.7 15.4 Total 100% (*) forecast figures The average transaction value of the HCM City bourse has declined to $30mil a day, and that of the Hanoi bourse, to $7mil, down from the $60mil/day level seen in the first days of the year, the report said. According to Merrill Lynch, Vietnam’s stock market will see things similar to what happened in Pakistan last year. Karachi Stock Exchange 100, the barometer of Pakistan’s stock market, increased by 250% from 2001-2005, while it rose by 5% o nly in 2006. In Vietnam, the VN Index increased by 145% last year after increasing by 85% two years before. The index has risen by 35% so far this year – it was 55% in the first three months of the year. The report says that there are a few factors that can help raise the VN Index at this moment. Vietnam obtained a very impressive high growth rate of GDP in the first months of the year. However, the problem lies in the fact that domestic companies all want to issue more shares, which makes the average EPS low, at 10%. The P/E index, according to Merrill Lynch’s researchers, has reached 39.5%, while the figure is 20% only in other regional markets. In order to show that the stock prices in Vietnam are not attractive, the researchers have quoted the figure released by Bao Viet Securities Company as saying that the P/E of Vietnam is 32. The report has also quoted Dragon Capital’s viewpoint, an investment fund management company, on the unsatisfactory share auctions of Phu My Fertiliser and Bao Viet Insurance: the final prices of the share auctions were much lower than the levels expected by securities issuers. Merrill Lynch said that the catalyst that could improve the situation remains very weak. Investors have been anticipating the IPO by Vietcombank scheduled for this year’s end, but many IPOs may be delayed if the market remains lackluster as nowadays. Meanwhile, the high inflation rate will put a lot of pressure on the interest rate policy, while causing the overly hot credit growth rate of joint stock banks. Since Merrill Lynch added Vietnam onto the list of investment-worthy countries, the stock market has grown by 212%, far exceeding the average growth rate in the region at 167%. Investors have been advised to use the capital they have to invest in China’s stocks. US-based Merrill Lynch is the world’s leading financial group with the total assets of $1,800bil. In October 2006, Merrill Lynch itself released a very optimistic report about Vietnam’s stock market, calling Vietnam ‘our top buy’ in Asia. The report was thought to create the investment fever in Vietnam’s stock market at the end of 2006 and early 2007. (Source: Viet Nam Net)